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Global Overpopulation

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So the earths poppulation has been almost on a constant rise since the black death. This is due to many factors, primarilly technological advancements in medicine and health care.

The biggest problem with this growing population is that the more it grows, the faster it grows. Just to give you an idea of how much faster it really grows as our numbers increase, refer to this graph:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Population_curve.svg

According to experts, the whole idea of overpopulation is highly debated. Some say the earth is already overpopulated while others say thet remains to happen. Estimates as to what the carrying capacity of earth is range in difference quite a bit.

I was wondering what others thought about this and what you think the carrying capacity of earth really is.

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Overpopulation has been a scare for some time now. People have been talking about overpopulation since the early days of the industrial era. Today very few actually think we have an population crisis despite many predicting we would have one by now. One thing people seem to forget is that technology is constantly improving our lives, making us wealthier, making more and more resources available, and creating alternatives. Another thing people have been predicting for over a century now depleted Oil reserves and Peak Oil( when we've found all the oil will ever find and reserves will only decline from then on). In 1882 people estimated we only had 95 million barrels of oil left and we'd run out in 4 years. In 1919 people estimated we only had 20 years of oil left in the world, but by 1956 we had 100 Billion barrels of oil in reserves. Peak Oil was predicted to happen 14 years later in 1970, but by 1980 we had 648 Billion Barrels of oil in global reserves, by 1993 we had 999 Billion Barrels, by 2000 it was over a Trillion and by 2008 it was over 1.2 Trillion. Overpopulation causing severe resource shortages have been predicted and proven wrong time and time again.


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Its gotten to the point where its getting harder and harder to find oil. We've resorted to drilling into the ocean and even inventing new inovative ideas to extract oil from places that would normally be impossible to.

Peak oil may not have been predicted right the first time, but it does exist.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Crude_Oil_Production_versus_Hubbert_Curve.png

From Wiki:

" US Peak Oil was in 1970 at 9.6 mb/d [3] . Since US Peak Oil, National Debt has increased in tandem with oil imports from $0.37 to $16.37 trillion [4] . Wars and military occupation of the oil rich Middle East have occurred since Gulf War in 1990 [5] . There seems to be national consequences for national Peak Oil in advance of the consequences of World Peak Oil."

Peak oil happened in 1970 for the US. Since then, oil production has steadilly declined aside from most recently, we have seen a slight increase in production. This isn't because we discovered there's more oil. Its only because people are determined to get the oil that's left and have found new ways to extract said oil from places we earlier would think was impossible to extract from.

Ethanol was a good idea as an alternative untill we realized that using more ethanol led to higher food prices.

Global peak oil may not have happened yet, but it will soon. Its already happened in the US and probably most of the world.

Aside from oil, technological advancement is part of this problem. Our advancements in medicine are making people live longer and even produce more offspring. The original graph I posted shows just how fast our numbers are increasing. Keep in mind, the more it increases, the faster it increases.

I view this problem as being simmaler to the US national debt. Its an obvious problem that signals inevitable doom, yet everyone ignores it because nobody has a solution that doesn't involve total outrage.

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We are an infection. Slowly kill the host and deplete it of life.

 

But in all honesty I think global population will level off soon. Many countries such as China have put strong reproduction limits on the general population. I think they limit families to one child.  I forsee things like this in the future. Also as we gain more people food, oil and other resources will become more scarce driving up the price making people think twice about bringing another mouth to feed. 

 

This was kinda cool to see: http://www.census.gov/popclock/

 

At the current rate the gov predicted that we'll reach 8 billion by 2025, which comparing to our previous milemarks (4 billion, 5 billion etc) We seem to be on a steady increase.

 

Another cool graph by dem googlonians.

 

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=world%20population#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&ifdim=region&tdim=true&tstart=-306435600000&tend=1302937200000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

 

 

That one is cool, cause they seperate all the different continents so you can see whos makin dem babies. You can totally see dem asians need to keep it in their pants.

 

Interesting subject you brought up, I was thinking about world population the other day.

-Zukran

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Chinas approach, although a smart idea, is more like a band aid for a wound that requires surgery.

Despite what China has done to control their growth, their population is still increasing at a decent, yet still low rate.

I pretty much agree with everything else you have said, except for the idea that our population will level off. I'm quite certain that it will only continue to grow.

I fear that the only real solution to this is a decision that would spark outrage. One of two things:

1. Kill a couple billion people as a temporary solution.

2. Restrict the majority of the populace from having any children.

Option number one is obviously unthinkable, though. Unless said problem at hand leads to a WW3....

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But in all honesty I think global population will level off soon. Many countries such as China have put strong reproduction limits on the general population. I think they limit families to one child.

 

 

Kudos to you for thinking that the limit actually stops people from reproducing more children.

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Humans are no different from other animals, once our resources get low and competition for necessities increase our population will decrease. And then we'll repeat it all until something terrible happens and we all die, nothing new here.

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Chinas approach, although a smart idea, is more like a band aid for a wound that requires surgery.

Despite what China has done to control their growth, their population is still increasing at a decent, yet still low rate.

I pretty much agree with everything else you have said, except for the idea that our population will level off. I'm quite certain that it will only continue to grow.

I fear that the only real solution to this is a decision that would spark outrage. One of two things:

1. Kill a couple billion people as a temporary solution.

2. Restrict the majority of the populace from having any children.

Option number one is obviously unthinkable, though. Unless said problem at hand leads to a WW3....

A third World War would reduce the Population too.

 

But in all honesty we need to let people die. Things like disease and having predators exist because populations need to be kept in check. With drugs out there stop most people from dying, there is nothing in place to keep the human population from spiraling out of control.

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A third World War would reduce the Population too.

 

But in all honesty we need to let people die. Things like disease and having predators exist because populations need to be kept in check. With drugs out there stop most people from dying, there is nothing in place to keep the human population from spiraling out of control.

With governments, advanced societies and everyone being assured protection from their environment, death rates are super small. Which also interferes with human evolution. I think humanity is all but done evolving except for maybe the influence chemicals have on our evolution. Which is kind of sad. We are evolving to become dependant on these advancements.

Unfortunately, our sense of "humanity" prevents us from letting people die.

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With governments, advanced societies and everyone being assured protection from their environment, death rates are super small. Which also interferes with human evolution. I think humanity is all but done evolving except for maybe the influence chemicals have on our evolution. Which is kind of sad. We are evolving to become dependant on these advancements.

Unfortunately, our sense of "humanity" prevents us from letting people die.

 

Maybe it was meant to be. We did evolve the genes to create the technologies and advanced societies...which is fair enough. Survival of the fittest, and we are the fittest.

 

 

 Edit: Homophones...

Edited by chrisford

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I wouldn't say fittest. Only smartest. We have evolved to become weaker (physically) and smarter.

However, now that we have reached this level of inteligence that we can build our own world around us, our world is built specifically for this current state of evolution. So I don't imagine us evolving any further except maybe to be even more weak, and more inteligent. Our minds are our fangs and claws.

But then again, I also feel like we might not even evolve at all, unless influenced by our intake of chemicals.

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I wouldn't say fittest. Only smartest. We have evolved to become weaker (physically) and smarter.

However, now that we have reached this level of inteligence that we can build our own world around us, our world is built specifically for this current state of evolution. So I don't imagine us evolving any further except maybe to be even more weak, and more inteligent. Our minds are our fangs and claws.

But then again, I also feel like we might not even evolve at all, unless influenced by our intake of chemicals.

 

We have evolved the intelligence to play God on our genes and do with them whatever we want, including the ability to add "athletic" genes. I don't think you can say that we are becoming weaker, when our intelligence can fix that.

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Possibly. If we started to actually practice genetics in the future. As of now, its not like we are manipulating the genes of every child born. Many people refuse to believe in such a practice.

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Possibly. If we started to actually practice genetics in the future. As of now, its not like we are manipulating the genes of every child born. Many people refuse to believe in such a practice.

 

We have the technology to do it now, and some people would be more than willing to do it. It's called gene doping or something like that, and it's controversial in sports.

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With governments, advanced societies and everyone being assured protection from their environment, death rates are super small. Which also interferes with human evolution. I think humanity is all but done evolving except for maybe the influence chemicals have on our evolution. Which is kind of sad. We are evolving to become dependant on these advancements.

Unfortunately, our sense of "humanity" prevents us from letting people die.

Actually, some scientists are predicting a new type of evolution. Not an evolution caused by natural selection but an evolution caused essentially by ourselves, basically they're expecting that we can change our genes almost like plastic surgery. And because we're changing our actual genes these genes would get passed onto our children unlike what plastic surgery does.

 

Two good videos that relate to what I'm talking about:

http://www.ted.com/talks/harvey_fineberg_are_we_ready_for_neo_evolution.html

http://www.ted.com/talks/juan_enriquez_will_our_kids_be_a_different_species.html

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Yeah but gene manipulation isn't a common thing and probably won't be for another couple centuries if at all.

What you guys are talking about is essentially Hitlers dream. Yet Germany is far from having a full populace of blond haired blue eyed people..... Might explain why they're so damn smart though. JK. :P

I'm just not so sure that gene manipulation is going to become common.

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Yeah but gene manipulation isn't a common thing and probably won't be for another couple centuries if at all.

What you guys are talking about is essentially Hitlers dream. Yet Germany is far from having a full populace of blond haired blue eyed people..... Might explain why they're so damn smart though. JK. :P

I'm just not so sure that gene manipulation is going to become common.

 

Yes, this is something I remember talking about in Biology class. We have the current technology to literally change the genes of unborn children the moment they are conceived, to give them favorable genes (athletic, intelligence, problem solving skills, removing potential genetic diseases like Downs syndrome, etc).

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This isn't nearly as big as it looks it is just all these quotes smacked in between comments.

 

Its gotten to the point where its getting harder and harder to find oil. We've resorted to drilling into the ocean and even inventing new inovative ideas to extract oil from places that would normally be impossible to.
Peak oil may not have been predicted right the first time, but it does exist.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Crude_Oil_Production_versus_Hubbert_Curve.png

From Wiki:
" US Peak Oil was in 1970 at 9.6 mb/d [3] . Since US Peak Oil, National Debt has increased in tandem with oil imports from $0.37 to $16.37 trillion [4] . Wars and military occupation of the oil rich Middle East have occurred since Gulf War in 1990 [5] . There seems to be national consequences for national Peak Oil in advance of the consequences of World Peak Oil."

Peak oil happened in 1970 for the US. Since then, oil production has steadilly declined aside from most recently, we have seen a slight increase in production. This isn't because we discovered there's more oil. Its only because people are determined to get the oil that's left and have found new ways to extract said oil from places we earlier would think was impossible to extract from.
Ethanol was a good idea as an alternative untill we realized that using more ethanol led to higher food prices.

Global peak oil may not have happened yet, but it will soon. Its already happened in the US and probably most of the world.

Aside from oil, technological advancement is part of this problem. Our advancements in medicine are making people live longer and even produce more offspring. The original graph I posted shows just how fast our numbers are increasing. Keep in mind, the more it increases, the faster it increases.
I view this problem as being simmaler to the US national debt. Its an obvious problem that signals inevitable doom, yet everyone ignores it because nobody has a solution that doesn't involve total outrage.

 
The main reason's for US Peak Oil isn't so much a lack of Oil in the ground, but because cheaper foreign sources made it less desirable to drill here. We also have a government that creates a host of labor and enviromental legislation that makes it more costly to drill here and even outright inhibits drilling. If we simply removed a number of barriers like giving more access to drill in more areas we could probably start seeing an increase in Oil production especially with higher Oil prices these days making it more economically viable to drill in the US. And just because were not making Oil doesn't mean we don't have other resources, Coal provides most of this countries Energy, and Natural Gas has become considerably cheaper and is on the rise. Also Solar and Wind are constantly improving and one of these days it will become economically advantageous. Also an increase in population doesn't simply mean more people to provide for, but more people who can labor and produce goods and services.
 
The problem is not like the US national debt. That is the product of selfish politicians being allowed to do all sorts of crazy and stupid moves to try and get re-elected and a generally apathetic and ignorant US public that's letting them do it. The US debt probably has simple solutions and is clearly a problem, there is still a lot of debate wether population growth is even a problem.
 

We are an infection. Slowly kill the host and deplete it of life.
 
But in all honesty I think global population will level off soon. Many countries such as China have put strong reproduction limits on the general population. I think they limit families to one child.  I forsee things like this in the future. Also as we gain more people food, oil and other resources will become more scarce driving up the price making people think twice about bringing another mouth to feed. 
 
This was kinda cool to see: http://www.census.gov/popclock/
 
At the current rate the gov predicted that we'll reach 8 billion by 2025, which comparing to our previous milemarks (4 billion, 5 billion etc) We seem to be on a steady increase.
 
Another cool graph by dem googlonians.
 
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=world population#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&ifdim=region&tdim=true&tstart=-306435600000&tend=1302937200000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
 
 
That one is cool, cause they seperate all the different continents so you can see whos makin dem babies. You can totally see dem asians need to keep it in their pants.
 
Interesting subject you brought up, I was thinking about world population the other day.
-Zukran

 
I don't think Population growth will level off anytime soon, but I think as more of the world becomes more developed, birth rates will begin to decline. A trend in more developed countries has been a decline in birth rates. This is do to children being a cost and burden and less desirable and whith the rise in greater and more available entertainment the desire for sex seems to have gone down, and lets not forget all the advancments in birth control technology. A third of people over 30 in Japan are still virgins.
 

Chinas approach, although a smart idea, is more like a band aid for a wound that requires surgery.
Despite what China has done to control their growth, their population is still increasing at a decent, yet still low rate.
I pretty much agree with everything else you have said, except for the idea that our population will level off. I'm quite certain that it will only continue to grow.
I fear that the only real solution to this is a decision that would spark outrage. One of two things:
1. Kill a couple billion people as a temporary solution.
2. Restrict the majority of the populace from having any children.

Option number one is obviously unthinkable, though. Unless said problem at hand leads to a WW3....

 
It's easy to say that stuff when you're not currently being subject and denied your rights by such policies as mass killing's and birth restrictions. Also it's easy to say we need a third WW when at the same time you don't think of all horrifying death and destruction and how many lives will be ruined possibly including your own possibly. We can't forget that the world is full of flesh and blood people, who have real lives, hopes and ambitions.
 

A third World War would reduce the Population too.
 
But in all honesty we need to let people die. Things like disease and having predators exist because populations need to be kept in check. With drugs out there stop most people from dying, there is nothing in place to keep the human population from spiraling out of control.

 
It's easy to say that living in a wealthier society. But let's bare in mind if we didn't allow all the life saving technology to greatly lower infant mortality rate, how many of us would be here to have this conversation at all? Does anyone here personally want their own life expectancy to go down? Wouldn't you wan't your Parents, Grandparents, and other family members to live longer and enjoy time with? It's easy to say these things when you're currently not being affected by the effects of such policy.
 

Kudos to you for thinking that the limit actually stops people from reproducing more children.

 
So true, when I visited China in 08 we found a lot, maybe even a majority of people had more than one Child. We even met a family with five children and as China's wealth grows more and more people are going to be able to pay the fines involved with having more than one child.
 

With governments, advanced societies and everyone being assured protection from their environment, death rates are super small. Which also interferes with human evolution. I think humanity is all but done evolving except for maybe the influence chemicals have on our evolution. Which is kind of sad. We are evolving to become dependant on these advancements.
Unfortunately, our sense of "humanity" prevents us from letting people die.

 
This is all I'm going to post on the matter of human evolution.


 
 
I would like to add on the matter of resources. Mankind is not running out of resources. We have more resources than ever before and will probably have even more in the future. What is really causing price of things like Oil and Copper to increase isn't that the population is growing too quickly, but the population is developing at a rapid pace. You have a large segment of the human population that not long ago was in outright poverty and had very little and could afford little that is now developing and becoming increasingly wealthier and it's needs and wants are growing as well. That contributes to why the price of many goods has gone up, but we're not suffering shortages. No one goes to the gas pump and complains about not having any oil. One side affect of rising prices is it encourages people to be more adventurous and make the economic risks and investments to find new ways to provide the resource, or create alternatives and overall increase our wealth as a society. For instance  two decades ago no one thought of using tar sand oil in Canada, but as oil prices have gone on the rise, using Tar sand oil has become ecnomically viable.

Edited by ShamanMcLamie

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Yes, this is something I remember talking about in Biology class. We have the current technology to literally change the genes of unborn children the moment they are conceived, to give them favorable genes (athletic, intelligence, problem solving skills, removing potential genetic diseases like Downs syndrome, etc).

The main problem right now is the price, once it begins to get cheaper I believe we'll start to see it happen; at first to remove genetic diseases but later on I think we'll start to see people use them to give their children more favorable genes.

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Population growth is a problem. Its ever increasing and is increasing ever faster. There's no data saying it leveling off any time soon.

Oil is running out. There's a reason we aren't producing oil. There's a reason everyone mass stockpiles it. We don't just use it to make gas. We use it to make all sorts of things like plastic. The world knows this and that's why we stock it, save it, and kill eachother over it in these past few decades.

As for that video, yes! That's pretty much my thoughts about it.

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Population growth is a problem. Its ever increasing and is increasing ever faster. There's no data saying it leveling off any time soon.

Oil is running out. There's a reason we aren't producing oil. There's a reason everyone mass stockpiles it. We don't just use it to make gas. We use it to make all sorts of things like plastic. The world knows this and that's why we stock it, save it, and kill eachother over it in these past few decades.

As for that video, yes! That's pretty much my thoughts about it.

 

Most of this population growth is coming from undeveloped countries. These countries don't have any use for oil, other than selling it for a profit to first world countries. So, yes, we're running out of oil. But, most of this oil isn't going to new populations, rather, people in developed countries are using oil more than ever before. To me, these issues are not connected.

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Population growth is a problem. Its ever increasing and is increasing ever faster. There's no data saying it leveling off any time soon.

Oil is running out. There's a reason we aren't producing oil. There's a reason everyone mass stockpiles it. We don't just use it to make gas. We use it to make all sorts of things like plastic. The world knows this and that's why we stock it, save it, and kill eachother over it in these past few decades.

As for that video, yes! That's pretty much my thoughts about it.

Everyone mass stockpiles oil because it's valuable, not because there's any signs of it running out. People stockpile money as well, not because they're running out of money but because it's valuable (for now anyways); it's no different than oil. If people are worried about a resource we're running out of you should be worried about helium which is in one way or another used to make most technology we have. The only reason helium is so cheap is because the US government is practically giving it away, if not for that your average balloon would cost about 100$.

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your average balloon would cost about 100$.

 

Give it a few years and inflation will fix that for you.

 

 

Edit: Lol no pun intended.

Edited by chrisford

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Chrisford, how can you say that? Of course they are connected. I know much of the population boom is coming from under developed countries, but that just means they have higher birth rates for the size of they're current population. The vast majority of people being born are coming from everywhere except these under developed nations.

More people requires more oil nomatter where you are.

Shell, I don't think so. I think that may be one reason, but I certainly don't see anyone selling their own oil reserves. I see them using them in a time of dire need. Like when we start running out. IE: Saudi Arabia, (last time I checked) had the largest oil reserves. They really have no need for such vast reserves because they produce more than anyone except possibly in modern times, Russia.

Considering how dependant the world is on oil, it wouldn't make sense to sell oil that your nation desperately needs. And if you wouldn't desperately need it, there's no sense in stock piling it.

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