Will Russia Invade (Mainland) Ukraine

[Gandalf 228]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26630062

[Fox Fire 31]

Just when you think its on the verge of war, it gets even closer.

First Ukrainian soldier killed:

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26637296

Address from Putin

http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/18-03-2014/127131-address_president-0/

True, there was a time when Crimean Tatars were treated unfairly, just as a number of other peoples in the USSR. There is only one thing I can say here: millions of people of various ethnicities suffered during those repressions, and primarily Russians.

Crimean Tatars returned to their homeland. I believe we should make all the necessary political and legislative decisions to finalise the rehabilitation of Crimean Tatars, restore them in their rights and clear their good name.

We have great respect for people of all the ethnic groups living in Crimea. This is their common home, their motherland, and it would be right - I know the local population supports this - for Crimea to have three equal national languages: Russian, Ukrainian and Tatar.

After the revolution, the Bolsheviks, for a number of reasons - may God judge them - added large sections of the historical South of Russia to the Republic of Ukraine. This was done with no consideration for the ethnic make-up of the population, and today these areas form the southeast of Ukraine. Then, in 1954, a decision was made to transfer Crimean Region to Ukraine, along with Sevastopol, despite the fact that it was a city of union subordination. This was the personal initiative of the Communist Party head Nikita Khrushchev. What stood behind this decision of his - a desire to winhttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png

 the support of the Ukrainian political establishment or to atone for the mass repressions of the 1930's in Ukraine - is for historians to figure out.

What matters now is that this decision was made in clear violation of the constitutional norms that were in place even then. The decision was made behind the scenes. Naturally, in a totalitarian state nobody bothered to ask the citizens of Crimea and Sevastopol. They were faced with the fact. People, of course, wondered why all of a sudden Crimea became part of Ukraine. But on the whole - and we must state this clearly, we all know it - this decision was treated as a formality of sorts because the territory was transferred within the boundaries of a single state. Back then, it was impossible to imagine that Ukraine and Russia may split up and become two separate states. However, this has happened.

I must say, I pretty much agree with this. The full article is also pretty interesting.

[Izorne 1]

I think history tells us enough... Russia is always after a warm water sea port, they say they'll do anything to get it, and then the other world powers put their foot down.

 

Also Catholics are very violent.

If that was the primary case, then it would be pointless since they already have Novorossiysk. Of course, it does not have the infrastructure Sevastopol has for its Black Sea fleet, but it would have been the location of its fleet had Ukraine not renewed the lease to the Sevastopol port... and this whole situation had not occurred. This is also hardly an economic decision either since they know that the West would react the way it has. It seems to be just another geopolitical struggle, nationalism, and backlash to NATO's expansion and friendship with those perceived by Russia to be in its sphere (just like Georgia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, strong arming Armenia to stay in line with pro-Russian policies).

[MurderMostFoul 1]

Yes, and no.

 

While I don't have pretty graphics to go along with my point, I'll try to illustrate it nonetheless.

 

If we look at the Georgia operation and how it was handled, the Russian advance slowly crept in by incriments, like they are doing now in Cirmiea and the Stevastapol region. Once shots were exchanged however, when Georgia began firing first, then the Russians jumped into overdrive, and went hog wild across their advance.

 

Assuming the tactics used in Ukraine are similar to the ones used in Georgia, which they seem to be, we can anticipate a envelopment of eastern Ukraine gradually, and inevitably. Should Ukraine openingly declare on Russia through force of arms, Russia will take advantage of the situation, taking everything and the kitchen sink.

 

Either way it is looked at, I believe we'll see Ukraine pull a Germany, and become part East and part West, respectivly.

[chrisford 42]

I think history tells us enough... Russia is always after a warm water sea port, they say they'll do anything to get it, and then the other world powers put their foot down.

 

Also Catholics are very violent.

 

History also tells us that Russia "protecting ethnic Russians" in a foreign region starts a world war.

 

History then tells us that letting countries get away with annexation also starts a world war.

 

History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.